The error of numerosity

Sarah Wendell over at Smart Bitches, Trashy Books, has a post up today about what she calls Unwitting Newsletter Douchebaggery–that is, people signing up other people for newsletters on the basis of the exchange of e-mails, business cards, and loving glances shared across the room. I started to comment over there, but it turned out that what I had to say was only peripherally related to the post, and the content was much more relevant to authors than readers. So I decided to post it here instead.

I think that Unwitting Newsletter Douchebaggery, and its close cousins, Twitter Dumbassery, Goodreads Nitwittishness, and Facebook Spambingo, come to pass because people fall into the error of numerosity. That is, they think that more is better. A mailing list of 10,000 people is better than a mailing list of 1,000. 10,000 Facebook likes is better than 2,000 Facebook likes, and 8,000 Twitter followers is better than 200.

They think this because Successful authors often have large mailing lists, many Facebook likes, and a bunch of twitter followers.

But what they don’t think is this: successful authors have many people on their mailing lists because many people want to buy their books. People actually do like those authors. They want to get their newsletters. The error of numerosity confuses correlation with causation: Successful authors have big numbers as a result of success. If you’ve grown your lists organically, they can help solidify your success. But having big numbers by itself won’t make you successful. It will just make your newsletter more expensive to send.

This is something I learned through experience. I don’t think I’ve ever engaged in Unwitting Newsletter Douchebaggery (I’ve always had a double opt-in for my newsletter, and I’ve always been very clear when someone is doing something that gets them subscribed to my newsletter), but I have engaged in Unwitting Newsletter Ignorance. When I first started out as a baby author, I tried to grow my newsletter mailing list–because bigger numbers are better numbers!–by holding regular contests. And it worked! I got names.  One time, my contest got posted on some “win free stuff on the internet” site and my numbers got completely massive that month! Hundreds and hundreds of people signed up in a short space of time. Whee!

So I sent out my newsletter (play obligatory Peter and the Wolf music) and ….

*crickets*

My open stats weren’t great, and there was almost zero effect from sending out a newsletter. Running regular contests took time, energy, and money–the first two of which were in far shorter supply than the last. Eventually, I moved from monthly contests, to quarterly contests, and after two of those, I stopped running contests entirely. Growing my mailing list just did not seem to be worth the time I was spending. I basically neglected my mailing list for a year and a half after that.

But–in retrospect, this is not weird at all–over the course of that year of discontent with my mailing list, my list actually became more effective. The people who  didn’t want to buy my books unsubscribed. And the people who were adding themselves–there was still a link on my website; I just wasn’t advertising it–were doing so not in the hopes of some great prize, but because they actually wanted to read my books. My open percentages got bigger; my clickthroughs increased. At this point, now that I can actually see sales in something close to real time, I can send out a newsletter and verify that it is having a real, noticeable effect.*

There’s a reason why people say that the formula for success as an author is “Write a good book. Then write another one.”

It’s not because newsletters, facebook, and twitter can’t help. It’s because focusing effort on growing those things in a nonorganic fashion does very little good. Newsletters and social media aren’t a goal in and of themselves. They solidify success; they cannot create it. No amount of promo-spam will make someone who doesn’t want to buy your book pull out their wallet. But if someone wants to buy your book, you only need to give them a gentle little touch–“Hey, it’s out!” and they’ll squee and rush out, because they’ve been waiting for just that moment.

But it’s not the number of newsletter subscribers, or Twitter followers, or Facebook likers, that makes those things work. It’s the level of interest of the people who subscribe.

So, don’t just avoid being a douchebag. Avoid falling into the pit of numerosity. Having bigger numbers might make you feel better, but if those numbers come from people who don’t want to read your next book, they don’t mean anything.

—–

* At this point, my newsletter is growing at a rate similar to the rate when I held contests, and I can attribute it to one thing: I’ve modified the page that immediately follows the end of a book so that it says something along the lines of, “If you liked this book, sign up to find out when my next one is available.” There’s a clickable link. I don’t offer any reward except finding out about my next book; people who sign up do so because they want to find out about my next book.

Google Analytics tells me that last month, almost 50% of my web traffic originated from people clicking that link.

So I’m not trying to say authors shouldn’t think about growing their newsletter list, or their Facebook fan pages, or any of those other things–not at all. It’s just that every success story I’ve heard about newsletters and Facebook and twitter has involved people saying things like, “I have so much fun with my readers on my Facebook page. We swap recipes!” and never “I had nothing, but then I got 5,000 people to like me on Facebook because I gave away a Kindle Fire, and now I’m selling like mad!”

I don’t think it makes sense to focus on, “How can I make my numbers increase?” It’s much more effective to ask yourself the question: “How can I make it easier for readers who want to read my next book to find out about it?”

Treating my newsletter as a partnership with readers (they want to know about my next book, and I want to tell them) rather than as a promotional activity (I want to show it to as many people as possible, without thinking about their preferences at all) completely changed the effectiveness and reach of my mailing list.

At this point, I would modify the formula above: “Write a good book. Make it easy for the people who like it to find out about the next one. Then write that one.”

Your Unspecial Antitrust Snowflake

This post is for those publishing professionals who think that if they can just get the DOJ to understand the argument that publishing is special, the lawsuit against the agency publishers will magically vanish.

These people have probably not taken a look at the history of price-fixing. Every industry that has been socked with a price-fixing complaint has argued that it is special, and if only the court understood how special it was, the court would agree that it should have the capacity to fix prices. Every industry. I don’t know why every industry feels it has to make this argument, but they all lose—every single time.

This blog post is a “greatest hits” of antitrust—throwing together a smattering of cases in which industries have argued that they should be exempt from antitrust law, that the Court simply doesn’t understand the industry, and that if only it did, they would prevail!

I start by going back to 1897—an early case, since the Sherman Act was passed in 1890. In United States v. Trans-Missouri Freight Association, 166 U.S. 290 (1897). There, the defendants claimed that railroads were not covered by antitrust law. Railroads, they argued, were a special snowflake: “Among these differences are the public character of railroad business, and, as a result, the peculiar power of control and regulation possessed by the state over railroad companies.” Id. at 320.

The Court disagreed: “Trading, manufacturing, and railroad corporations are all engaged in the transaction of business with regard to articles of trade and commerce, each in its special sphere—either in manufacturing or trading in commodities or in their transportation by rail.” Id. at 322. It concluded:

All combinations which are in restraint of trade or commerce are prohibited, whether in the form of trusts or in any other form whatever.

We think, after a careful examination, that the statute covers, and was intended to cover, common carriers by railroad.

Id. at 326-27.

In United States v. Socony-Vacuum Oil Co., 310 U.S. 150 (1940), the defendants—like the agency publishers at issue here—thought that they were facing what they called “ruinous competition”—competition so fierce that it (they claimed) could destroy the industry. For that reason, they believed that their price-fixing scheme should be allowed.

Here’s what the Court thought of that:

Congress has not left with us the determination of whether or not particular price-fixing schemes are wise or unwise, healthy or destructive. It has not permitted the age-old cry of ruinous competition and competitive evils to be a defense to price-fixing conspiracies. It has no more allowed genuine or fancied competitive abuses as a legal justification for such schemes than it has the good intentions of the members of the combination. If such a shift is to be made, it must be done by the Congress.

Id. at 321-22.

In Associated Press v. United States, 326 U.S. 1, 6 (1945), one of many cases that hashed out the role of the AP in our society, the Supreme Court dealt with the “Special Snowflake” exemption: “[W]e are not unmindful of the argument that newspaper publishers charged with combining cooperatively to violate the Sherman Act are entitled to have a different and more favorable kind of trial procedure than all other persons covered by the Act.”

The Court’s response?

“Equal—not unequal—justice under law is the goal of our society. Our legal system has not established different measures of proof for the trial of cases in which equally intelligent and responsible defendants are charged with violating the same statutes. Member publishers of AP are engaged in business for profit exactly as are other business men who sell food, steel, aluminum, or anything else people need or want…. All are alike covered by the Sherman Act.”

Id. at 6-7.

In Goldfarb v. Virginia State Bar, 421 U.S. 773 (1975), the Virginia State Bar (not a governmental body, incidentally) had published a minimum fee schedule for its lawyers. The Goldfarbs, unhappy about the cost of legal representation, sued. The State Bar argued that legal professionals were special snowflakes—specifically, that “competition is inconsistent with the practice of a profession because enhancing profit is not the goal of professional activities; the goal is to provide services necessary to the community.” Id. at 786.

The Supreme Court said in response:  “The nature of an occupation, standing alone, does not provide sanctuary from the Sherman Act.” Id.

In National Society of Professional Engineers v. United States, 435 U.S. 679 (1978), the ethics board of the NSPE banned competitive bidding practices. They, like other industries before them, advanced the Special Snowflake defense:

[T]he Society averred that the standard set out in the Code of Ethics was reasonable because competition among professional engineers was contrary to the public interest. It was averred that it would be cheaper and easier for an engineer “to design and specify inefficient and unnecessarily expensive structures and methods of construction.” Accordingly, competitive pressure to offer engineering services at the lowest possible price would adversely affect the quality of engineering. Moreover, the practice of awarding engineering contracts to the lowest bidder, regardless of quality, would be dangerous to the public health, safety, and welfare.

Id. at  684-85.

Once again, the Supreme Court didn’t buy it:

It may be, as petitioner argues, that competition tends to force prices down, and that an inexpensive item may be inferior to one that is more costly. There is some risk, therefore, that competition will cause some suppliers to market a defective product.… These are not reasons that satisfy the Rule; nor are such individual decisions subject to antitrust attack.

Id. at 693-94.

In Arizona v. Maricopa County Med. Soc’y, 457 U.S. 332 (1982), the people fixing prices were, this time, doctors. There, the doctors argued that they were, well, doctors. Doctors, they said, are special. They are professionals. And they have to deal with insurance companies, which are evil. The Court disagreed: “We are equally unpersuaded by the argument that we should not apply the per se rule in this case because the judiciary has little antitrust experience in the health care industry.” Id. at 349.

This is a short history of section one of the Sherman Act. Lawyers and doctors—professionals who have special relationships with their clients—get no exemptions. Civil engineers claimed that if they didn’t get to prop up their fees, bridges would collapse; the Court gave that argument short shrift. Oil companies whined about ruinous competition; the Court’s response was that if the oil company was unable to compete, it should be ruined.

Stop thinking about this emotionally. Stop thinking of this as your livelihood. Ask yourself honestly: Do you think that courts will say that book publishing is more important than the building of safe bridges? Do you really think that courts will find it so much more important that they will grant book publishers a judicial exemption in the face of more than a hundred years denying them?

No. No, you don’t.

There are only two legitimate defenses to a claim of price-fixing:

  1. We did not fix prices.
  2. It was a legitimate joint venture.

“We are a special snowflake” is not on the list.

Swag I will have (RWA Anaheim 2012)

I’ll be signing books at the RWA Literacy Signing at the Anaheim Convention Center, from 5 to 8 PM. I’ll be at table 1000 (nice, easy to remember number!) so please come by and say hi if you’re around!

Swag that I will have there:

Mini-excerpt books for The Brothers Sinister (including a never-before-posted excerpt from The Duchess War, and a mention of something that I haven’t mentioned online because I am afraid it might not happen), mini-excerpt book for Three Weddings and a Murder, awesome shiny bookmarks (the picture doesn’t adequately show how shiny they are, and yet how not shiny where it matters! They are nonuniformly shiny!), and–not pictured–shot glasses.

Because if you can find me at RWA (here’s the map) you deserve a drink. Alas; alcohol not included.

RWA Literacy Signing

On July 25, 2012, from 5-8 PM, I’ll be signing books at RWA’s “Readers for Life” Literacy Signing at the Anaheim Marriott. All proceeds go to literacy, so if you’re in Southern California, stop by and say hi to me! And don’t stop with me–there will be literally hundreds of romance authors present. This is the biggest book signing for romance authors that happens during the year, so if you love romance, I hope you can make it.

Of course, that may take a little bit of doing. You see, you’re really going to have to use your literacy to find anyone. This year, the authors are not arranged by alphabetical order. It’s not entirely clear what the order is, but RWA has come up with a handy-dandy map to explain everything, which you can download here: http://www.rwa.org/galleries/rwa2012/RWA2012%20Literacy%20Map.pdf

Of course, that’s insufficiently clear for my liking–you have to look forever to find Milan, Courtney in that sea of names!

So I decided to make y’all an easier-to-understand version.

I’m sure you’ll agree it explains everything.

What David Boies is doing

The announcement that David Boies had entered the fray that is the DOJ versus agency publishing was greeted by a wave of adulation.

Mike Shatzkin tweeted that his letter “obliterated the gov’ts case.” A slew of commentators rushed to add that if a lawyer as good as Boies was weighing in against the DOJ, it must be that the case was unfounded.

Those people, I think, do not understand how it is that really excellent lawyers make their money. They don’t do it by taking hopeless cases and winning them. That’s the Hollywood version of the law. They don’t do it, either, by waiting for cases that anyone could win and then grabbing them.

No; when loss is inevitable, you hire an excellent lawyer in a hopeless case not because you think that lawyer will help you win against all odds, but to manage the magnitude of that loss.

That is what Barnes and Noble has done by hiring David Boies–they’re not shooting for a win; they’re shooting to manage the loss.

Let me explain.

David Boies wrote that letter knowing that the government and the defendants were going to settle. The stakes are too high for the agency publishers. We are talking about allegations of a criminal act that are supported by phone calls, notes, indiscreet comments made to people. The punishment for that is potentially treble damages–think about the cost of that. The agency publishers who are thinking rationally rather than emotionally know that they are goners. As cases go, this one is a massive stinker.

That is why David Boies’s letter says nothing about the conduct at issue here: the claimed conspiracy between the agency publishers. He has nothing to say on that front; if the allegations made in this and the suit by the attorney generals have any basis in reality, this one is lost on its face.

So take another look. David Boies’s letter to the DOJ is not designed to win that lawsuit or prevent settlement. Settlement is inevitable. The letter is designed to make the settlement process take longer.

So he argues that the proposed settlement is overbroad–in other words, go back and rewrite it! He then argues that the settlement process is not based on a sufficient factual record–in other words, go back and dig for more facts and present them to the court! What he never says is that settlement (in the abstract) is inappropriate or that there was no illegal conduct.

Delay is the only marginal win that Barnes and Noble can hope for. If the settlement is delayed, and agency comes to an end, Barnes and Noble suddenly–painfully–has to compete on price. Boies said so himself:

Distributors, such as Barnes & Noble, at the expense of publishers, enjoy somewhat greater profit margins, as they earn 30 percent commissions on the sales of e-books, as opposed to the negative profit margins they experienced under the wholesale model.

How much do you think it’s worth to B&N to not have to compete on price for another year or two? To be able to grab more market share from Amazon by competing in other ways that are less costly? The last years of Agency were a boon for Barnes and Noble. The more years they can get, the more money they’ll make. Five figures for a lawyer who manages to extend the life of agency for another handful of months would be cheap at the price.

Publishing professionals who are embracing Boies’s letter as an industry savior need to take another hard look. Nothing that Boies said in that letter was designed to do anything other than buy B&N time to consolidate and expand market share without competing on price. In other words, it wasn’t designed to help the publishers win the lawsuit–Boies’s utter silence on the salient legal issue in the suit makes that perfectly clear.

That letter was designed to make the loss less painful for Barnes and Noble. It’s exactly what you’d expect from an excellent lawyer who was trying to do his best for a client in an impossible situation: An attempt to gum up the settlement for as long as possible. If he’s really lucky, Boies will get a settlement that doesn’t bar agency pricing. But that, I suspect, is a luxury on his list. (And, note: it’s a luxury on the list of the publishers.) The meat and potatoes of this letter is that Barnes and Noble would be happy to push settlement off for as long as they can.

And that is why Boies is a great lawyer. He knows that he can’t win the lawsuit, and so he goes for what he can win–which is, for now, another six months.

That’s how you manage a loss. It’s not how you orchestrate a win.

Do authors/publishers owe the state of Washington business tax? (Round 1)

I actually can’t answer this question generally, or, at this point, even for myself. Normally, I would say “talk to your tax preparer.” But the truth of the matter is that the state of Washington is still promulgating regulations to try to deal with some changes that have been made to the law, and the draft form of the regulation does not clarify whether self-publishers (and others who have business dealings with Amazon) are swept in by the new law. So point your tax preparer to this post (which contains the answer I received from the Department of Revenue in its entirety). The ruling I obtained is not binding on you, but it is binding on me.

So here’s the deal.

For background purposes: Washington state has no individual income tax, but it does tax business activity in the state. That means that Washington residents and those who have a sufficient economic nexus with Washington need to pay a certain percentage of their income to Washington every year.

My initial thought was that if I wasn’t living in Washington, I wouldn’t have to pay their business & occupations tax. Then I started reading the tax code. As of 2011, Washington state requires you to license your business in Washington, and pay business occupation taxes, if you have an “economic nexus” with Washington. The standard is outlined on their website:

If your business earns income attributable to Washington that would be taxable under an apportionable B&O classification and meets one of the following thresholds within a calendar year, you have economic nexus with Washington:
    More than $50,000 of payroll in Washington
    More than $50,000 of property in Washington
    More than $250,000 of gross income in Washington
    At least 25 percent of your total property, payroll, or income in Washington
If you have economic nexus, you must register your business with the Washington State Department of Revenue and report and pay Washington B&O tax.
I don’t meet the payroll, property, or gross income requirements. But more than 25% of my income comes from Amazon Digital Services, which has its corporate domicile in Washington (even though it is incorporated elsewhere). So the question I had was, do payments from Amazon Digital Services count as income attributable to Washington state?
I tried to figure out the answer from the proposed regulations implementing the new law, and managed only to confuse myself. The proposed regulations were not written with self-publishers doing business with Amazon in mind. After talking to people on twitter, and trying to figure out the answer, I eventually decided to seek a ruling from the Washington Department of Revenue. So I sent them an e-mail asking the question.
I reprint their reply in full:
Answer:
Actually, we believe that you are making consignment sales of your books through Amazon Digital Services. Therefore, you would owe retailing B&O tax and retail sales tax on your sales to Washington consumers.  However, if Amazon does not collect and remit sales tax on your behalf and if Amazon does not provide a state by state breakdown, we can allow an alternative to using the customer’s address (as is usually the case).
Rather than requiring you to remit the taxes due on your book sales to all of your customers, we will allow you to remit such taxes on 2% of your sales since you don’t get the needed information from Amazon.
Sharing this ruling
You may share this ruling with anyone you like. However, it is only binding on your business. We recommend other businesses request a ruling based on their specific facts.
In the mean time, the Department is working on a proposed rule for royalty income (WAC 458-20-19403). You may view the proposed rules on our website.
This ruling is binding.  If you disagree with this ruling, you have specific appeal rights under WAC 458-20-100.
This is, sadly, not a useful ruling. It tells me what to do if Amazon does not collect sales tax and does provide a state-by-state breakdown. It tells me what to do if Amazon does not collect sales tax and does not provide a state-by-state breakdown. It does not, however, tell me what to do if Amazon does collect sales tax and does not provide a state-by-state breakdown–in other words, it doesn’t tell me how to deal with reality. I suspect that the answer is that if Amazon collects sales tax, I can still do a state-by-state breakdown, but I want to make sure that this is the case.
I have sent a second letter to the DOR asking them to clarify what to do in this situation, and will post the answer here. If the answer is that the taxes still need to be apportioned, that pretty much means I am home free–I won’t get 25% of my income from Washington under that standard, and unless I have a year in which Amazon US nets me $12,500,000, I won’t meet the $250,000 of income standard, either. (Note to whatever capricious gods control such things: I’m happy to get $12,500,000 in income in exchange for paying Washington B&O tax.)
Of course, this ruling is binding on me, but it is not binding on you–so I share this, and I tell you what I think it means for me, but you should talk to someone else before you believe this is an answer. (As an aside: this makes me believe that at a minimum, agency publishers are likely to owe Washington state business and occupations tax.)
More importantly, I think that if I were publishing through Montlake or one of Amazon’s imprints, I would seek a separate ruling as to whether that created an economic nexus, because the answer to that might come out differently.
So this is, at present, still an open question. My fingers are crossed that Washington’s newly implemented regulations will not make a huge amount of paperwork for self-publishers.

You’re invited to…a virtual wedding shower!

Ha! I bet you thought this was a post to promote the anthology I just published with Tessa Dare, Leigh LaValle, and Carey Baldwin, didn’t you?

And it should be, because I’ve been running around the last few days like a chicken with my head cut off trying to get things done, and I just realized I haven’t posted about the anthology’s release yet. But this is not a post about Three Weddings and a Murder, although it is a post about author Carey Baldwin.

This is a post about the fourth wedding. This next week, Carey Baldwin–my dear friend and fellow author–is getting married! I couldn’t be happier for her, or for her husband. (I also couldn’t be happier that she’s getting married in Hawaii, because I am so looking forward to the sun!) So it’s time for a virtual bridal shower–but this one is going to have very real party favors.

I’m going to be giving away A LOT of books (both paper and digital) to people who comment on this blog post, who tweet Carey, and who comment on her Facebook page.

Specifically, you can be entered to win in one of three ways

1. Comment on this blog post, with what you would bring to Carey’s virtual wedding shower.

2. Tweet Carey (@CareyBaldwin) using the hashtag #marrycarey wishing her congratulations on her upcoming marriage.

3. Comment on Carey’s facebook page here: http://www.facebook.com/CareyBaldwinAuthor.

I’m going to be giving away at least 100 paper books (many of them are books that I have written, but I also have books from Jeannie Lin, Delilah Marvelle, Laurie London, Tiffany Clare, Tessa Dare).

I’ll also be giving away 24 digital books: 10 copies of Three Weddings and a Murder, 5 copies of Carey’s debut First Do No Evil (this will have to wait until near the end of June for delivery), 2 copies of Sarah Mayberry’s marvelous Her Best Worst Mistake, and 2 copies of Darcy Burke’s debut, Her Wicked Ways.

So it’s time to wish Carey well.

Other details: the contest is open from now until the end of the day on June 30th. Winners will be picked at random from all entries, and contacted sometime in the following week. You can enter once per method listed above.

And I’m going to start by offering a toast (with virtual champagne and/or nonalcoholic apple cider, your choice):

To Carey: I tried to say something more elaborate, but totally failed. You’re marrying one of the only men in this world who’s amazing enough to deserve you. Excellent work.

How to pick a lawyer

One of the tropes that is running rampant right now is, “Don’t get an agent; just get a lawyer to vet your contracts!” There are a number of reasons advanced for this–one is the notion that an agent will take 15% forever, while you pay a lawyer a flat fee–but while people often put this forward, they very rarely talk about how to pick a good lawyer for the job. The advice I do see on that front varies from middling to startlingly bad.

Here’s the truth: a bad lawyer is like a bad agent. I’m kind of shocked that people in the indie community are now treating lawyers as if they are all brilliant, ethical specimens who will look out for your interests, whereas agents will not. Are we talking about the same profession? I am a lawyer. I know lawyers. Many of them are good, honest, and ethical. Some of them are not. Lawyers are just like agents–they can be crappy, stupid, and unethical. And, like agents, because they have a lot of power, it sucks mightily when you hire one who is crappy, stupid, and unethical. Also like agents, a good lawyer is a great thing to have.

You’re better off with no representation at all then picking someone who doesn’t know what they’re talking about. Here’s another truth: any time you’re picking someone to represent you because that person has superior skills/knowledge in a particular area, you are picking someone who you are particularly ill-suited to judge.

But there are a few things you can use as a general rule of thumb.

  • I see people saying, “Get an IP lawyer!” This is bunk. “IP lawyers” do a broad range of things. They draft patents. They litigate trademark disputes. They send DMCA takedown notifications and cease and desists to people who violate trade secret. Each of those lawyers that I’ve mentioned above are distinct people, and in point of fact you probably wouldn’t find one “IP lawyer” who does all of those things, because the branches of IP are very specialized. It’s very, very rare that you’ll find someone who both litigates patents and who also drafts complicated trademark licensing agreements. It’s so rare that I can’t think of a single practitioner who does all those things. I’m sure such a person exists.
  • You need someone who is versed in transactions, and specifically in the law of contracts.
  • But a contracts lawyer who happens to have some passing familiarity with IP is not enough. Anyone who remembers a damned thing about contracts can tell you that when you’re interpreting a contract, one of the things that you look to to determine the meaning of a particular term in a contract is trade usage. Thus, for instance, my contracts with Harlequin set out different royalty rates for “mass market” versus “trade paperback.” Someone unfamiliar with the publishing industry might get bent out of shape and say, “But what if they say your mass market is a trade paperback? They are, after all, sold in the trade, and have paper covers! How do you protect yourself from the claim that they only owe you 7.5% royalties on it instead of 8%?”That’s a claim that would make anyone in the industry roll their eyes, because everyone knows what the difference between a mass market and a trade paperback is. It doesn’t need to be defined in the contract because the industry has agreed upon standards.

    Attorneys do not magically know what trade usage is. That stuff is not tested on the bar. It is not taught in law school. It is learned by experience, and if your attorney does not have experience in the field of publishing, your attorney is basically taking your money without giving you any piece of mind. The attorneys who do know are the ones who have experience in the trade of publishing. If you want to hire someone to vet your publishing contract, you want a literary attorney.

  • So how do you tell if someone is a literary attorney? Answer: Because they have negotiated publishing contracts before. Many of them–not just yours. And, because this is a business that actually takes a good amount of time to learn, anyone who is a good literary attorney will have this as their primary bread and butter.Someone who has primarily worked on divorce cases is unlikely to be a good literary attorney. They’ll miss on two marks: They won’t have the requisite transactional drafting experience (at best, they’ll be drafting settlement agreements, but agreements regarding the dissolution of marriage are entirely different beasts than agreements that govern the creation of a relationship), and they won’t have regular, sustained experience in negotiating this particular type of contract. That means they won’t know what they can ask for and get, and they won’t know what there’s no point in asking for, and they won’t know what particular language means, and so they might get you in more trouble than you recognize.
  • A side note: I know more about the substance of contract law and intellectual property law than my agent–by a wide, wide margin. I feel confident saying that, and since my agent knows what I do in my day job, I feel fairly confident that she would agree. But my agent knows much, much more about the language of the trade of publishing than I do. That’s why my agent negotiates my contracts. I read them. I ask her questions. But I specialize in contract law and intellectual property, and I have an agent.
  • A good attorney doesn’t have any agenda except zealously representing your interests. An attorney who holds publishers in distaste and who approaches every contract assuming bad faith from the other party may not adequately represent your interests–they are more likely to scotch the deal entirely. If that’s what you want to happen, you can tell your potential publisher “no” without spending any money at all on an attorney.
  • There are people who are cited regularly for legal commentary in the indie community who, quite frankly, have shown an appalling grasp of basic contract law and have never studied intellectual property. I think some of these people are a malpractice suit waiting to happen. Ask hard questions of anyone you consider hiring. How many contracts have you negotiated with publishers? Which publishers? How did the negotiation turn out? How long have you been practicing? What sort of work have you done? What kind of transactional contract work have you done?
  • A good literary attorney is, in fact, very expensive. Keep in mind that many books do not earn out their advances, and so “15% of forever” often means “15% of your advance.”

This is a very, very brief list of things to look for. If you find a potential attorney to look over your work, and they fail on one of the points above, think very very hard before hiring them. If you find a potential attorney to look over your work and they fail on all of the points above…run away!

A letter to the DOJ

A few days ago, Simon Lipskar wrote a letter to the Department of Justice, detailing his issues with the pending antitrust lawsuit. One of his issues with the settlement appears to be that he has no clue what the law of antitrust is, and didn’t bother to talk with even a marginally competent lawyer about the legal requirements. Charles Petit over at Scrivener’s Error does a lovely takedown; and Jane Litte over at Dear Author has gone through the amended complaint in the multistate class action suit. I hope Lipskar reads that complaint carefully and reconsiders his position, because the allegations that are made in that complaint are that this was a conscious, criminal conspiracy to fix higher prices and cost consumers hundreds of thousands, if not millions of dollars. Criminal conspiracies, no matter their intent, are never in the best interest of the publishing community.

Nevertheless, in Lipskar’s open statement to the community, he asked members of the publishing community to weigh in on the issue and make our voices heard, and to post our letters publicly. So I did. I’ll be sending the following letter to the Department of Justice:

John R. Read
Chief, Litigation III Section
United States Department of Justice
450 5th St NW
Suite 4000
Washington DC 20530

Dear John Read:

This letter is written as a response to literary agent Simon Lipskar’s defense of the agency-pricing scheme, sent to you and posted openly on the internet.

I’m aware that the Department of Justice’s attorneys hardly need me to explain how deeply flawed Lipskar’s understanding of antitrust law and competition really is. As the ongoing settlement is, however, a public process, I wanted to provide the DOJ with enough paper to demonstrate that not all members of the publishing community walk in lockstep with Simon Lipskar.

Specifically, Lipskar cites Amazon sales ranks demonstrating that many titles in Amazon’s top 100 are low-priced.

Of course, this doesn’t demonstrate that consumers weren’t harmed (even if such an inquiry were relevant; colluding to fix prices is a per se violation of Section One of the Sherman Act and so consumer harm is presumed). Instead, it demonstrates that because prices of New York Times bestsellers increased, consumers who would otherwise have preferred to purchase those books instead chose to purchase other books.

That agency pricing changed consumer buying habits is a demonstration of harm, rather than the reverse: Rather than buying the books they preferred at a reasonable price point, consumers instead bought books they might not otherwise have considered.

The second reason that Lipskar’s data is unconvincing is that it demonstrates a deep-seated misunderstanding of how cartels work. Game theory tells us that cartels never last. New entrants come into the market and undercut the pricing schemes; plus, there’s always an incentive for cartel members to cheat and grab market share. That low-priced books from non-agency publishers have taken over the market proves only that the cartel here did what cartels are wont to do, given enough time: It failed.

As defenses go, “this cartel was so ineffective that it scarcely had any effect on competition” wins points for chutzpah.

But given the allegations in the multistate class action complaint–that David Shanks asked for assurance that he would not be the only publisher signing the agency agreement, that Carolyn Reidy wrote “3 agree = OK” on a print-out of an e-mail detailing the agreement, that the publishers who had entered the agreement collectively put pressure on Amazon when it refused to accept the retail price maintenance agreement from Macmillan and sent each other encouraging notes, and that those publishers then used their relationship with Barnes and Noble to force Random House to join their cartel–this cartel has already maxed out on chutzpah.

Sincerely,

Courtney Milan

 

A tale of two royalty statements

This is (one of) the times of the year when royalty statements from publishers arrive, and I just received mine.

I don’t intend this post to imply any moral condemnation of publishers themselves or of people who choose (for a variety of legitimate reasons) to publish with them. What I want to do is lay out two royalty statements: one for This Wicked Gift, my 2009 Christmas novella which was published by Harlequin, and one for Unlocked, my self-published novella released at the end of May in 2011. This is for informational purposes only.

This Wicked Gift was part of an anthology released with Mary Balogh and Nicola Cornick. Both the Balogh and the Cornick had been released earlier, but Balogh is a perennially popular author, and she’s particularly known for her Christmas tales. The anthology spent two weeks on the USA Today list and sold a bunch of copies. Since then, it has been translated into three other languages and released in both the UK and Australia

In other words, for a relatively new author–and this was my first published work–this story had an amazing run.

Between 2009 and December of 2011–in other words, a little bit more than two years–my novella made me $23,593.78. Which–don’t get me wrong–is totally awesome. (I also want to make one thing clear: Different countries didn’t always pair the same stories together, so my earnings on this are not the same as Mary Balogh’s and Nicola Cornick’s. I’m okay with sharing numbers; the other authors who have been part of this may not be, so please don’t make any judgments as to them.)

Unlocked also had a pretty freaking amazing run for a novella. It spent three weeks on the USA Today list. It’s been translated into one other language (that would be German). And in the last 11 months, it has made a total of $46,970.03–almost exactly twice as much, in half the time.

Now some of you are thinking, “Sure, Courtney, but you have to compare apples to oranges. You had to bear the costs of production for Unlocked. That can’t be cheap.”

True.

So to make this accounting more clear, I have to include costs.

I spent a total of $4143.48 on Unlocked. A good chunk of that went to producing the German version–I wanted a great translator, and that doesn’t come cheap. Also, I can’t proofread German, so the proofreading expense was higher for the German version. The rest went to covers, editing, advertising, proofreading, and a proportional amount of capital expenditures (computer costs, software costs, and the costs of various e-readers) that I charge to all my books in my internal accounting. (As a note: as I’ve self-published, my costs have gone down, as I figure out what’s necessary and what isn’t.)

But to make this fair, we also need to think about what I spent on This Wicked Gift, because there are expenditures involved with a book release. My accounting wasn’t nearly as good back then–today, I track every penny I spend. But I went back through my tax records and have reconstructed what I’ve spent. Ready?

I spent $6289.07. A decent portion of that is advertising. I also did a mailing to a large number of bookstores–around 800 or 900–which cost me postage, supplies, and printing. I gave away more than a hundred copies of the anthology (something that, by the way, I do not regret at all) on a variety of venues, which necessitated (a) buying more copies of the anthology, and (b) shipping them. I’ve also apportioned to the novella its costs for the excerpt book that I produced. But a good proportion of that expense is the cost of my agent, who gets 15% of the take. (And she’s earned it–and more. Really. One of the costs of traditional publishing is that it pays to have someone who will navigate the adversarial side of the relationship, leaving you to be friendly. And people can quibble over whether that is necessary, but it’s certainly necessary for me.)

So I spent more on my traditionally-published novella than I did on my self-published one.

Now the place it doesn’t even out is my time. I spent more time producing Unlocked than I did on This Wicked Gift. But it’s not a matter of zero to one: there are some things I had to do for This Wicked Gift that I never had to do for Unlocked. (From a personal perspective, I traded doing things that I hated doing–like remembering to do bookstore mailings–for things that I enjoyed doing–like organizing covers and the like.)

(Now, to be fair, there are some places where I simply didn’t have to spend as much money for Unlocked: by the time Unlocked came out, a handful of people had already heard of me, and so the promotional costs were by necessity not as large.)

I don’t want to imply that anyone who chooses Column A is making a bad choice. The fact that I had a traditionally published novella in an anthology that did very well absolutely contributed to my success when I went into self-publishing. And Unlocked benefited from a confluence of random series of lightning, striking often and repeatedly.

But for those who are looking for information, the bottom line is this: As an author, I spent 50% more on a traditionally-published novella. And I made half as much in twice the time.